出口导向型发展模式与产业结构转型升级——以广东省为例

本文计算了广东的产业结构转型系数,发现广东的产业结构演变趋于停滞,存在被长期锁定于二三一结构之虞。为了考察产业结构趋于停滞的原因,本文对出口依存度与三、二产业产值对比系数做了协整关系检验,结果表明出口依存度对三、二产业产值对比系数具有长期的负向影响,而且是三、二产业产值对比系数的格兰杰原因。换言之,广东的出口导向型发展模式有利于促进工业化进程,却不利于广东实现由工业经济向服务经济的转型升级。针对出口导向型工业化导致的结构扭曲问题,作者提出了相关的政策建议。

Export-oriented Development Model and Industrial Structure Transition and Up-grading

This paper calculates the industrial transformation coefficient in Guangdong Province,and finds that the evolution of industrial structure tends to slow down so as to make the economy locked in the manufacture-based structure.In order to analyze the reasons beneath this trend,an integration test between export dependency and comparison ratio of secondary and tertiary industries has been taken and it reveals that export dependency does not only have a negative effect on the comparison ratio in the long run b...