基于HP滤波——生产函数方法的我国潜在产出估计

以往有关估算我国潜在产出的研究,要么采用HP滤波方法进行潜在产出估计,要么采用生产函数方法对潜在产出进行估计,但HP滤波方法与生产函数方法两种方法都有自身的弊端,即缺乏经济理论基础或过于复杂、数据要求高等,均不能科学有效地对潜在产出进行合理估计。经研究发现运用这两种主要潜在产出估计方法,即HP-生产函数法对我国潜在产出进行估计能较好地克服单独使用其中一种方法带来的弊端,使得潜在产出估计方法既简便又具备经济理论基础。

Estimating the Potential Output by Combing the Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach

Lots of researches on the potential output in our country used the Hodrick-Prescott Filtering approach or the Production Function Approach.But there are many flaws in the approach,lacking of economic theory foundation,being too complicated or the high request of data,which could not reasonably estimate the potential output efficiently.The research finds that combining HP-filtering with production function to estimate the potential output in our country could overcome the flaws of using lonely approach.The combined approach is simple,convenient and possesses solid theoretical foundation.