中国海外直接投资政治风险预警系统研究

政治风险是海外投资项目评估的起点,是影响海外直接投资成功与否的关键因素。研究政治风险的影响因素以及建立灵敏的预警体系具有重要的现实和理论意义。依据我国海外直接投资主要流向的26个国家2002-2009年相关数据,运用主成分分析和BP神经网络模型的研究结果表明 :政治风险的影响因素主要来源于政治、经济和社会层面。在政治经济制度发展水平较低的国家,投资者应首先防范政治层面的风险。在政治经济制度发展水平中等且与我国政府具有良好外交关系、社会文化差异性较小的国家,投资者应首先防范经济因素引发的政治风险。在政治经济制度发展水平较高的发达国家,投资者应防范我国与东道国的政治、文化和社会距离所引发的政治风险。

Early Warning System of Chinese OFDI Political Risk

Political risk is taken as the starting point for assessing overseas investment projects,and it is also a crucial factor which influences the success of foreign investment.Therefore,to analyze the factors influencing the political risk and to construct a sensitive early warning system of political risk is of great practical and theoretical significance.Although there are some professional institutions worldwide that are specialized in measuring political risk,their assessments are simply conducted based on the host countries’ own political,economic and social environment,ignoring the specific political risk of foreign direct investments regarding to a particular home country and a particular host country.Moreover,most of the political risk researches focused on risk assessment and prevention,but few of them paid attention to the early warning system.As a supplement of the previous researches,this paper aims to provide macro-level political risk information for Chinese overseas investments by constructing an early warning system of political risk in 26 countries where Chinese investment flow abroad. On the basis of the summary of the relevant researches on political risk,this paper has explained the formation mechanism of the political risk and analyze the main factors influencing the political risk,which can be considered in the political,economic and social dimensions.We have proposed an indicators system to assess and predict the macro-political risk faced by Chinese OFDI.The indicators system suggested in this study consists of indicators such as political stability,the distance of the democracy degrees between China and the host country,the distance of the corruption levels between China and the host country,the host country’s law culture,the host country’s dependence on China,per capita income of the host country,GDP growth,inflation rate. With the annual data on the 8 indicators of the indicators system from 2002 to 2009,we have given scores to 26 host countries according to principal component analysis in terms of their macro political risk.Then this paper further classifies the political risk of these years into four levels: danger,alerting,basically safe and safe.Additionally,this paper has constructed an early warning system in political risk for foreign investment of Chinese companies based on BP Artificial Neural Network,through which we also predict the political risk of Chinese foreign investment in 2010. Based on the empirical study mentioned above,we argue that Chinese investors should guard against risk arising from political factors in politically and economically less-developed countries,against risk arising from economic factors in politically and economically moderately developed countries which also maintain good diplomatic relations and have less cultural differences with China,and against risk arising from political,cultural and social factors in politically and economically highly developed countries.