公共安全服务市场化动因的实证分析

公共安全服务市场化改革尽管在缓解其供求矛盾方面已显示出一定的成效，但理论界对其合理性仍存有较多的争论。本文从经济学的研究视角，对公共安全服务市场化的动因进行了实证分析，根据基于VAR模型（滞后期选定为2期）得到的脉冲响应情况得出：城市化、二三产业的发展及财政赤字等因素均会对公共安全带来压力，走市场化改革之路是当前及未来一段时间的理性选择。

An Empirical Analysis on the Causes of Marketization of Public Security Service

Though the reform on the marketization of public security service has shown some positive effect to resolve the problem of supply and demand,there are still heated arguments on its rationality.This paper,from perspective of economics,explores into the causes of the marketization of public security service through empirical analysis.It is drawn that urbanization,budgetary deficits as well as the development of the second and third industries,all give high pressure to public security,and that marketization is a sensible choice at present and in the future.