| 深圳市未来医疗床位需求的模型预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 令亦璞,蓝静. 深圳市未来医疗床位需求的模型预测[J]. 肇庆学院学报, 2012, 33(5): 5-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | 令亦璞 蓝静 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南师范大学数学科学学院,广东广州,510631 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析深圳市1979-2010年人口变化的数据，采用ARMA模型与多项式回归拟合模型，预测了深圳市2011—2020年的总人口数；再用多项式拟合方法，预测了全市未来10年人口的年龄结构、医疗床位需求总量及各区医疗床位需求量；最后，选取高血压疾病患者的相关数据，预测了患者在不同类型医疗机构就医的医疗床位需求量．
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| 关 键 词： | 医疗床位 预测 AKMA模型 LogiScic模型 回归拟合 |
Model Prediction for Hospital Bed Demand in the future in Shenzhen City |
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| LING Yipu,LAN Jing. Model Prediction for Hospital Bed Demand in the future in Shenzhen City[J]. Journal of Zhaoqing University (Bimonthly), 2012, 33(5): 5-9 |
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| Authors: | LING Yipu LAN Jing |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Mathematic Sciences,South China Normal University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 526061,China) |
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| Abstract: | The ARMA model and the regression model are used to predict the total population in Shenzhen in the period from 2011 to 2020,based on the Shenzhen population data from 1979 to 2010.The polynomial fitting method is used to predict the age structure of the population,the total hospital bed demand,and the hospital bed demand in different districts of the city during the period from 2011 to 2020.Finally,as an example,the hospital bed demand for the hypertension patients in different types of medical institutions are predicted by choosing the relevant data. |
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| Keywords: | hospital bed demand predication ARMA model Logistic model regression |
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