房价上涨对我国城镇居民消费的挤出效应研究

本文以住房双重属性为基础，从理论上分析发现房价上涨对消费的影响会因居民对住房属性的不同侧重产生差异，若侧重其投资品属性，最终影响会是挤出效应，抑制消费。本文根据不同类型居民的消费差异以及住房属性的不同侧重，构建动态面板模型以进行实证分析，结果表明：我国房价上涨存在明显挤出效应，地区性差异明显，进一步研究还发现挤出效应影响的广泛性，不仅直接挤出消费支出，还可作用于消费的其余影响因素间接抑制消费。因此，要减缓这种挤出效应，增强消费对经济的拉动作用，政府部门不仅要注重住房的消费品属性，合理调控房价上涨幅度，而且还须出台系列相关措施，例如缩小收入差距、降低消费支出不确定性和努力摆脱土地财政。

The Crowding out Effect of Housing Price Rise on Residents' Consumption in China

Based on the double attributes of housing, It finds that the impact of housing price on consumption would be different because of the residents’ different emphases on housing property. If they mainly focus on the investment property, then ultimately influence would be crowding out effect, that is the housing price rise curbs consumption. According to the differences of different types residents’ consumption and focus on housing properties, we build a dynamic panel model for empirical analysis. The results show that the housing price rise is obvious crowding out effect in China, and the regional differences are also obvious. The further research shows that the crowding out effect is universal, which directly effects the consumption expenditure and can act on other influencing factors of consumption to indirectly inhibit consumption expenditure. Therefore, to slow the crowding out effect and enhance the pull effect of consumption on economy, the government should not only pay attention to the housing consumption attribute and reasonable regulation the housing price rise, but also carry out a series of related measures, such as narrowing the income gap, reducing consumption expenditure uncertainty and trying to get rid of the land finance.