中国经济增长核算分析:1978—2018

自改革开放以来,中国经济经历了40余年的高速增长,为经济理论创新和宏观管理提供了许多启示与经验借鉴。利用国家统计局数据,总结已有研究成果,在系统修正数据缺陷的基础上,首先测算了中国物质资本和人力资本以及相关指标的1952—2018年时间序列,然后使用岭回归技术建立了中国经济的超越对数型生产函数,以此为基础分析了资本要素、人力要素和全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献及其变动。分析表明,20世纪90年代以来,资本要素对经济增长的贡献率在波动中缓慢下降,人力要素的作用在波动中趋强而在近阶段增长较大超过资本要素,全要素生产率的贡献率则是加速增大,目前已超过50%。通过权威数据和数学模型提供了较为严谨的相关变量时间序列数据,同时较为准确地揭示了改革开放40年中国经济各阶段的增长动力构成及特征。

China's Economic Growth Accounting Analysis:1978—2018

Since the reform and opening up,Chinas economy has experienced 40 years of rapid growth,which has provided many experiences and enlightenments for the innovation of economic theory and macro-management.Based on the authoritative basic data of the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper summarizes the existing research results.On the basis of systematically correcting the data defects,the time series of material capital,human capital and related indicators in China from 1952 to 2018 are calculated at first.Then,the trans-logarithmic production function of Chinas economy is established by using ridge regression technique.On this basis,the change and contribution of capital factor,human factor and total factor productivity to economic growth are analyzed.The analysis shows that the contribution rate of capital factor to economic growth is gradually declining in fluctuation,while the role of human factor is stronger in the fluctuation,and has increased greatly in the recent stage,exceeding the capital factor,and the contribution rate of total factor productivity is accelerating.At present,the contribution rate of total factor productivity to economic growth has exceeded 50%.The main outcomes of this paper are as follows:firstly,the authoritative data and mathematical models are used to provide a rigorous and systematic time series data of relevant variables;secondly,the composition and characteristics of the growth engine of Chinas economy in recent 40 years are revealed more accurately.