中国银行业高盈利研究————基于与实体经济行业比较的证据

基于行业差异分析的视角,以16家上市银行和九大行业2006-2012年的面板数据为研究对象,通过对比分析影响两者盈利的因素来考察我国银行业高盈利的真实原因。实证结果显示：实体行业盈利对规模指标的敏感程度甚于银行业,风险因素对两者的影响刚好相反;市场集中度与银行盈利显著正相关,而与实体行业负相关,但作用并不明显;宏观环境中存贷款利差显著负作用于实体经济盈利,而对于银行业则不显著;证券化率与银行利润负相关,而与实体行业正相关。这表明,放宽民间金融准入,推进利率市场化,提高风险管理水平,完善资本市场发展是实现金融服务实体经济目的的必然举措。

A Study on the High Profit of Chinese Bank Industry---Based on the Evidence of Comparing with the Entity Industry

Based on the perspective of industry differences, this paper selects the 2006-2012 panel data of 16 listed banks and 9 major industries as research object. Through comparative analysis of the factors which affect their profit, we can investigate the true reasons of our bank industry's high profit. The empirical results show: (1) the positive effect of scale index on the entity industry is stronger than the bank industry; the risk index has an opposite effect on them. (2) The market concentration is significant and positive correlated with bank profits, however, the connection with entity industry is negative, but not significant. (3) Among the macro-economic environment, the effect of deposit and loan's spread on entity industry is significant and negative, yet not significant on bank industry; the securitization rate is negative correlated with bank industry, but with entity industry to the opposite. Therefore, broadening the folk financial access, pushing on the interest rate marketization, improving risk management and perfecting the development of capital market are the inevitable init