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| Intervention-ARIMA模型在我国第三产业就业人数预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 万平. Intervention-ARIMA模型在我国第三产业就业人数预测中的应用[J]. 统计教育, 2009, 0(9): 31-33,37 |
| 作者姓名： | 万平 |
| 作者单位： | 河北经贸大学数学与统计学学院 |
| 摘 要： | 本文利用Intervention—ARIMA模型对我国第三产业就业人数（1952—2006年）时间序列进行了动态拟合，重点考虑了“大跃进”对我国第三产业就业人数的干预影响，取得了很好的拟合效果，并预测了我国未来几年第三产业就业人数的发展趋势。证明了第三产业发展对缓解我国当前就业压力的积极效应。 |
| 关 键 词： | Intervention—ARIMA模型 第三产业 就业 |
The Application of the Intervention-ARIMA Model to the Prediction of the Employment of the Tertiary Industry in China |
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| Wan Ping. The Application of the Intervention-ARIMA Model to the Prediction of the Employment of the Tertiary Industry in China[J]. Statistical education, 2009, 0(9): 31-33,37 | |
| Authors: | Wan Ping |
| Abstract: | This paper dynamically simulates the time series of the employment of the Tertiary Industry in China by the Intervention-ARIMA model. It specifically considers the interventional influence of the big-leap-forward on the employment of the Tertiary Industry. The number of the employment in recent years is predicted by this simulation model, and it is proved that the advancement of the Tertiary Industry could lighten the recent employment pressure in China. |
| Keywords: | Intervention-ARIMA model the Tertiary Industry employment |
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