基于单变量分析的我国上市公司两阶段财务预警模型实证研究——以纺织行业为例

我国现有的财务预警研究大部分仅限于对上市公司是否会陷入ST来建立预测模型,缺少对公司陷入ST后财务状况预测的进一步研究。应着眼于为上市公司的外部信息使用者建立ST前和ST后两阶段的预测模型,即把正常公司是否会转为ST公司作为模型预测的第一阶段,把ST公司是否会暂停上市作为模型预测的第二阶段,可选取包括现金流量指标在内的五种财务指标,以纺织行业为例进行分行业的实证研究,建立纺织行业两阶段的单变量预测模型。研究结果表明这些模型在两个阶段都达到了较好的预测效果。

An empirical study of two-stage early warning models of financial crisis based on one variable analysis of China's listed companies: A case study of textile industry

Most early warning models of financial crisis in China were limited to predicting whether the listed companies will become special treatment companies.In this paper,a study of two-stage early warning models of financial crisis is provided for external users.The first-stage model is applicable to predict whether the listed companies will become special treatment companies.The second-stage model is applicable to predict whether the special treatment companies will be suspended from Chinese security market.The cash flow ratios and other four kinds of financial ratios are included in the models.The textile industry is studied to test the validity of these models.