转型期中国城市住宅市场供求状态及其波动效应1991-2008

本文采用1991-2008年的时间序列数据,对转型期中国城市住宅市场中商品住宅有效供给与有效需求总量的失衡程度进行了测算。结果表明,我国住宅市场中有效供给和有效需求总量的失衡问题在一定时期内较为严重;随着市场经济进程的深入和经济的发展,供求失衡的状况逐渐好转,但近年来这一问题又显现出来;为了确保住宅市场的长期健康发展和居民福利的提高,今后政府应将消除住宅市场有效供求失衡问题作为一项基本的方针政策。

Imbalanced Effective Supply and Effective Demand of China's Housing Market from 1991 to 2008

In this article,based on data from 1991 to 2008,we make a theoretical and empirical study on the degree of imbalance between effective supply and effective demand in China’s housing market initially.We find out that the problem of imbalance in China’s housing market is severe within certain time.With the market economy’s advancement,the state of imbalance between supply and demand will be changed to be better gradually.Nevertheless,this problem appears again in recent years.In order to achieve the goal of the long-run and healthy development of the housing market,we have the policy implications that basic and specific policies should be made by governments to eliminate the imbalanced supply and demand.