基于灰色系统理论的显著性项目造价估算方法研究

通过显著性项目成本（cost significantitems，CSIs）的引入，建立了基于时间序列的灰色GM（1，1）模型，从灰色系统角度分析。根据收集到的资料，通过对已完工程工量清单的分析研究，以实际工程项目造价计算为例，分析研究一种快速的显著性项目造价估算方法，并对其进行残差检验，相对误差、灰色关联度、均方差比值、小误差概率其精度均为一级，计算实例表明，该方法在显著性项目估算中具有方便、快捷、准确的特点，在实际应用中取得较好的效果。

Significant Project Cost Estimation Method Based on Gray System Theory

Through the introduction of significant cost items, the establishment of time series based on the gray GM （1,1） model, from the point of view to analyze the gray system, according to a- vailable information gathered, by analyzing the bill of quantities for works already completed, taking the actual cost of the project as an example, this paper studies the significant project cost estimation methods,and test it through residual relative error, which shows the gray correlation degree, mean square deviation and small error probability all reach the accuracy Level A. Calculation example shows that this method is convenient, fast and precise, and achieves good results in practical applications.