双循环驱动我国城市产业转移效应研究

基于201个城市的相关数据，利用动态面板模型和空间杜宾模型，实证分析了内循环、外循环和双循环对产业转移的影响。研究结果表明：前期产业转移在一定程度上会影响后期产业转移，前一期当地产业比例较大，其后产业转移受到的促进作用也较大；内循环、外循环和双循环均对产业转移起到显著的正向促进作用，东部城市受到的促进作用略高于中西部城市；要素流动在产业转移中发挥着重要作用，劳动力要素流动、技术要素流动和资本要素流动不仅受到内、外循环和双循环的促进作用，同时对产业转移也起到一定的促进作用；产业转移具有空间相关性，产业在空间上倾向于向产业转入较高的城区转移。为此，我国在政策上应进一步加快推动内循环，促进外循环，关注要素流动在产业转移中的重要作用，合理分配要素资源。

Study on the Effect of Urban Industrial Transfer Driven by Dual Circulation in China

Based on the data of 201 cities, this paper uses dynamic panel model and spatial Dubin model to empirically analyze the influence of domestic circulation, international circulation and dual circulation on industrial transfer. The results show that the industrial transfer in the early stage will affect the industrial transfer in the later stage to some extent. The proportion of local industries in the previous stage is large, and the promotion effect of the industrial transfer in the later stage is also large. The domestic circulation, international circulation and dual circulation all play a significant positive role in promoting industrial transfer, with eastern cities having a slightly higher promoting effect than central and western cities. Factor flow plays an important role in industrial transfer. Labor factor flow, technology factor flow and capital factor flow are not only promoted by domestic, international circulation and dual circulation, but also play a certain role in promoting industrial transfer. Industrial transfer has spatial correlation, and industries tend to transfer to higher urban areas in terms of space. Therefore, China should further accelerate the promotion of domestic circulation and international circulation in policies, pay more attention to the important role of factor flow in industrial transfer, and allocate factor resources reasonably.