我国利率市场化中基准利率的选择与培育

利用我国金融市场利率数据(1997~2005年)和相关计量模型,对再贴现利率、同业拆借利率、债券市场回购利率和债券市场现券交易利率成为基准利率的可行性进行实证分析,发现:同业拆借利率是我国基准利率的最佳候选者。同时,对上海银行间同业拆放利率(Sh ibor)进行计量分析,亦发现其具备成为基准利率的潜力,但它也存在运行时间短、覆盖面小等不完善因素,需要在改革中进一步培育。

The Choice and Cultivation of Benchmark Rate in the Marketization of China's Interest Rate

Based on the data about the interest rate of China's financial market(1997~2005) and relevant models,the paper conducts an empirical study of the possibility of rediscount rate,interbank offered rate,interbank bond buyback rate and interbank bond spot structure rate to become the benchmark interest rate.It is discovered that interbank offered rate is the best candidate.The metrical analysis of Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(Shibor) confirms the potential of Shibor to become the benchmark interest rate,but Shibor needs to be further cultivated due to its imperfect factors such as a short period of its operation and a narrow scope of covering.