初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素——基于CFPS2010数据的分析

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2010),分析中国初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:随时间推移,初婚解体风险总体呈现上升趋势,其对城市的影响超过了农村,对女性的影响超过了男性;初婚年龄与初婚解体风险呈现轻微的U型关系,主要是由早婚或晚婚的婚姻异质性所引起;婚姻异质性对初婚解体风险的作用受择偶梯度的影响,"男高女低"婚姻模式的初婚离婚风险远远小于"女高男低"模式;在家庭因素的影响中,生育孩子有利于降低初婚离婚风险,而与父母同住及婚前同居则显著增加了初婚离婚风险。

Research on Change Trend and Influencing Factors of Marriage Collapse Risk: Statistics Analysis on Data CFPS2010

Based on data CFPS2010 , the paper analyzes Chinese marriage collapse risk trend and influ-encing factors. Conclusion as following: with the development of social transformation, marriage break-up increasing rapidly. Its influence is greater on urban than rural, men than women. The first mar-riage age of first marriage break-up appear to be slightly U-shaped relationship. And this relation-ship is caused by marriage heterogeneity. Marriage heterogeneity effect on the risk of marriage break-up is affected by mating gradient concept, and divorce risk of the“male high female low"model is low-er than the“male low female high" model. Some family factors also affect marriage collapse risk: child bearing reduces the divorce risk; living with parents increases divorce risk; premarital cohabitation also increases divorce risk.