中国居民代际收入流动性的变化趋势及影响机制研究

基于1989~2015年共计10轮CHNS数据,本文采用代际收入弹性和代际收入秩关联系数双重测度指标对我国居民代际收入流动性进行了测算,发现代际收入流动性在1991~2004年期间基本保持稳定,2004年以后呈现出不断上升的变化趋势。基于收入分组视角的研究发现,各收入组2004年以后代际收入阶层固化程度均有所降低,但高收入组和低收入组的固化程度远高于其他各组,中等收入群体是目前我国保持较高代际收入流动性的主要动力来源。从城乡差异视角看,受大规模农村劳动力向城镇流动的影响,2000年后农村家庭的代际流动性显著提升,且持续高于城市居民的代际流动性。进一步,基于人力资本分析框架对我国代际收入传递机制进行了探究,发现父亲的非教育因素在代际收入传递中起到主导作用。受整体社会制度环境不断改善的积极影响,2004年以后非教育传递机制不断减弱,对代际收入流动性的提升起到较大助推作用;而受高等教育扩张政策的影响,教育因素在2004年左右一定程度上削弱了代际收入流动性。

Research on the Trend and Channels of Intergenerational Income Mobility of China

Since the reform and opening up, China has made great achievements in economic and social development.However, the income inequality among urban-rural area, regions, and different groups is still large, and the imbalanced development is very prominent. Intergenerational income mobility refers to the changes in income of children relative to the income of their parentsin the family. It reflects the dynamic changes in the economic and social status of a family between generations and is an important indicator to reflect equality of opportunity(Zhang and Eriksson, 2010; Black and Devereurx, 2011). High income inequality not only hinders the accumulation of human capital, but also may cause social instability. Therefore, improving the intergenerational income mobility of Chinese residents is very important to improve the efficiency of human capital and maintain social stability(Wang and Yuan, 2015;Liu et al., 2018).At present, there have been accumulated lots of studies on the trend of the intergenerational income mobility for Chinese residents. Based on different data and different estimation methods, inconsistent conclusions have been reached. Considering the inconsistent results of intergenerational income mobility in the existing research, this paper analyzes the changes in intergenerational income mobility of Chinese residents from 1989 to 2015 using a total of 10 rounds of CHNS data from 1989 to 2015 and employing dual measures, including intergenerational elasticity(IGE)and rank-rank slope, and two types of estimation methods to estimate IGE, including the cross-sectional analysis method using the temporary income of fathers and the panel data analysis method using the long-run income of fathers. We obtain more consistent conclusions: the relative intergenerational income mobility were stable during 1991～2004 and showed a rising trend since 2004. Further, after grouping the samples into five quintiles by the level of income, it is found that although the intergenerational solidifications for all five income groups continue to decrease after 2004, the high-income and low-income groups have been more solidified over the years than the middle-income group. The middle-income group is the main driver to maintain high intergenerational income mobility in China. The comparison between urban and rural households shows that due to the impact of large-scale rural migration to urban areas, the intergenerational mobility of rural households has significantly increased since 2000, and it is higher than the intergenerational mobility of urban households.Furthermore, based on the human capital analytical framework we can decompose IGE to further study the changes in the transmission mechanism of intergenerational income mobility for Chinese residents. It is found that father’s non-educational factors play a leading role in intergenerational income transmission. Decomposition results show that the non-educational transmission mechanisms impact accounts for more than 60% of the IGE. Taking 2004 as an important period, decomposing the difference in IGE between those in 2004 and those after 2004, we find that the patrilineal non-educational factors have the largest impact on the intergenerational income persistence.Compared with the existing research, the innovations of this paper are mainly as follows: Firstly, a new measurement of the intergenerational income mobility of Chinese residents over the past 30 years has been conducted using dual measurement approaches. Secondly, based on the perspective of income grouping and urban-rural differences,this paper explores the changing trends of intergenerational income mobility for different groups, and also exploring the impact of the differences between groups on the overall trend in intergenerational income mobility. Thirdly, based on the analytical framework of human capital, we analyze the transmission mechanism and changes in intergenerational income mobility over historical years from the perspective of vertical comparison.