俄罗斯经济30年:从"去工业化"到"新工业化"

苏联解体后,受经互会统一经济空间分崩离析、“休克疗法”激进式改革造成严重经济危机、自然资源依赖型发展模式对制造业发展空间挤压等诸多因素影响,俄罗斯被动进入“去工业化”进程,陷入了出口资源能源产品、进口高附加值制造业产品的恶性循环。为扭转在全球产业链分工中处于低端的被动局面,俄罗斯开启了“新工业化”探索,其主要目的是对传统优势产业部门进行现代技术改造,推动高技术新兴产业发展,最终摆脱能源原材料型增长模式,实现从全球产业链价值链低端向高端的跃升和经济结构的转型升级。在第四次工业革命背景下,受困于逆全球化浪潮、西方国家经济制裁,俄罗斯“新工业化”探索将至少面临四大挑战,即技术支撑不足、高素质劳动力供给相对不足、资金投入不足、制度体系亟待健全。

The 30 Years of Russian Economy: From De-industrialization to New Industrialization

For the past 30 years,Russia suffered from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Comecon,and encountered a severe economic crisis caused by the radical reform of shock therapy.These disasters coupled with factors such as its natural resource-dependent development mode,which meant that the manufacturing industr had to be compressed and that Russia was forced into a process of“de-industrialization”and a vicious cycle that relied on exports of resources as well as energy and in exchange for high-value-added products manufacturing.In order to reverse the adverse situation of being at the low end of the global industrial chain,Russia has launched the initiative of“new industrialization”,whose main purpose is to modernize the country’s traditional advantageous industries while promoting new high-tech and emerging industries and to get rid of the growth mode of energy and raw materials exports finally,as well as leaping from the low to the top end of the global industrial chain and the transformation and upgrading of economic structure.Russia currently faces more challenges.On the one hand,the Fourth Industrial Revolution is underway;on the other hand,anti-globalization and economic sanctions from Western countries pose serious threats.Russia’s“new industrialization”faces at least four challenges:inadequate technical support;a relatively insufficient supply of highly qualified labor;insufficient financial support;and an urgent demand to improve its institutions.