农户电商创业意愿实证研究——基于技术接受、感知风险与主观经验

农村电商对精准扶贫、乡村振兴实现具有重大作用。选取山东省农村电商典型地区为调研对象,结合技术接受模型与感知风险理论,采用结构方程模型与层次回归实证检验520位微观农户数据,探究农户电商创业意愿在技术接受、感知风险与主观经验间逻辑及传导机制。结果显示:技术接受中感知易用性和感知有用性正向影响农户电商创业态度与创业意愿;感知有用性总体效应最为显著,主观经验显著调节感知有用性对创业意愿影响,高经验组与低经验组存在明显差异;感知风险负面影响农户电商创业意愿,主观经验弱化感知风险对创业意愿抑制效应。基于此,提出短期针对性和长期战略性相结合,强化基础设施建设,不断优化农村电商支持与监管,推进人才培养及品牌建设等政策建议。

An Empirical Study of Farmers'Entrepreneurial Intention to Adopt E-commerce: In View of Technology Acceptance,Perceived Risk and Subjective Experience

Rural e-commerce plays an important role in the realization of targeted poverty alleviation and rural vitalization.Taking typical rural e-commerce areas in Shandong Province as the research object,combining technology acceptance model and perceived risk theory,and using structural equation model and hierarchical regression to empirically test the survey data of 520 farmers,this paper explores the logic and transmission mechanism between technology acceptance,perceived risk and subjective experience.The study reveals the following results:(1)Perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness in technology acceptance positively affect farmers’e-commerce entrepreneurial attitude and entrepreneurial intention;(2)overall effect of perceived usefulness is most significant.Subjective experience significantly adjusts the impact of perceived usefulness on entrepreneurial intention.There is an obvious difference between the high-experience group and the low-experience group;(3)Perceived risk negatively affects farmers’e-commerce entrepreneurial intention and subjective experience weakens the inhibitory effect of perceived risk on entrepreneurial intention.Therefore,this research proposes short-term and long-term strategies,including strengthening infrastructure construction,continuously optimizing rural e-commerce support and supervision,talent training,and brand building.