基于演化博弈的PPP项目绩效支付机制仿真与优化

PPP建设模式的关键核心之一是依绩效付费,绩效付费机制的科学合理性是PPP模式实施成功的保障。基于演化博弈理论及系统动力学研究PPP项目绩效支付机制,分析绩效监督机构与项目公司双方演化稳定均衡策略。研究发现存在三种演化稳定均衡策略,两种不稳定均衡策略。针对五种演化状态运用系统动力学对其进行仿真。仿真发现三种稳定均衡策略仿真结果与理论分析一致,两种不稳定均衡策略中的一种是不存在的均衡策略,另一种是呈规律波动的不稳定均衡策略。针对绩效支付机制中呈波动不稳定均衡策略,引入动态绩效支付进行优化,使其演化为稳定均衡策略。并理论验证了引入动态绩效支付使波动不稳定均衡策略变成稳定均衡策略的有效性。为政府有关部门设计及完善PPP项目绩效支付机制提供一定的参考。

Simulation and Optimization of PPP Project Performance Payment Mechanism Based on Evolutionary Game

One of the key cores of the PPP model is the payment based on performance. The scientific rationality of the performance payment mechanism is the guarantee for the successful implementation of the PPP model. In the performance payment process of PPP projects, performance supervision agency can adopt two strategies:careful supervision and non-careful supervision. Project company can adopt two strategies of earnestly accomplishing performance goals and not completing performance goals. The result of performance payments is the result of a game between the performance supervision agency and the project company. The evolutionary game method is used to analyze the evolutionary equilibrium strategy of performance supervision agency and project company in performance payment. It is found that there are three evolutionary stable equilibrium strategies and two kinds of unstable equilibrium strategies. The system dynamics are simulated for five evolutionary states. Simulations show that the simulation results of the three stable equilibrium strategies are consistent with theoretical analysis. One of the two types of unstable equilibrium strategies is an equilibrium strategy that does not exist, and the other is an unstable equilibrium strategy that exhibits regular fluctuations. For the performance-based payment mechanism, a volatility-unstable equilibrium strategy is introduced, and dynamic performance payment is introduced to optimize it and evolve it into a stable and balanced strategy. And theoretically verified the effectiveness of the introduction of dynamic performance payment to make the fluctuation unstable equilibrium strategy into a stable equilibrium strategy. Provide some reference for the government departments to design and improve the performance payment mechanism of PPP projects.