生产性服务业集聚与中国企业出口生存——考虑异质性和传导机制的分析

本文以生产性服务业集聚的出口传导效应为切入点，采用我国222个城市数据和微观工业企业数据，通过Cloglog模型研究了生产性服务业集聚对企业出口生存的影响并进行了异质性和传导机制的扩展分析。研究发现：生产性服务业集聚通过专业化分工外溢、综合成本节约效应降低企业面临的出口风险，提高出口生存的概率，但上述效应表现出明显的滞后性；高端生产性服务业集聚对延长企业出口持续时间具有显著的正向效应，而低端生产性服务业集聚由于“拥挤效应”阻碍了企业的出口生存和可持续性，内资企业和非国有企业表现得尤为突出；同时，生产性服务业集聚的影响具有显著的地区异质性，高端生产性服务业集聚显著降低了东部地区企业的出口风险，低端生产性服务业集聚对提升西部地区企业出口成功概率的作用更大；此外，我国生产性服务业集聚的特征使得多样化集聚成为影响企业出口生存的主要机制，专业化集聚的作用相对较小。本研究有助于更全面地认识生产性服务业集聚影响我国企业出口生存的作用机制，对政府管理者更加精准与科学地制定服务业发展和对外开放政策具有积极的现实意义。

Producer Services Agglomeration and the Export Survival of China’s Enterprises—An Analysis in View of Heterogeneity andTransmission Mechanism

Based on the export transmission effect of producer services agglomeration, the paper studies the effect of producer services agglomeration on the export survival of China’s enterprises with Cloglog Model using the data of 222 cities and micro industrial enterprise data of China, and extends the analysis in view of heterogeneity and transmission mechanism. The results show that the producer services agglomeration can effectively reduce the risk of export survival through professional division of labor and comprehensive costsaving,but this effect has a significant hysteresis. Besides, the agglomeration of high-end producer services has a significantly positive effect on prolonging the export duration of enterprises, while the agglomeration of low-end producer services hinders export survival and sustainability due to the crowding effect, particularly prominent in domestic and non-state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, the agglomeration of producer services has significant regional heterogeneity. The agglomeration of high-end producer services significantly reduces the export risk of enterprises in the eastern region of China. The agglomeration of low-end producer services plays a greater role in enhancing the probability of successful export of enterprises in the western region. In addition, the characteristics of producer agglomeration services in China make diversified agglomeration the main mechanism affecting the export survival of China’s enterprises, while the role of specialized agglomeration is relatively small. This study provides beneficial references for understanding the mechanism of producer services agglomeration affecting the export survival of China’s enterprises and proves significant for government administrators to make accurate and scientific policies to promote the development of services and opening-up.