基于4PL的跨境电商物流联盟多方行为博弈研究

在对我国4PL跨境电商物流联盟运作模式分析的基础上,针对基于跨境电商平台主导的跨境电商物流联盟,运用演化博弈理论,分析联盟内跨境电商平台、物流服务商和商家之间的动态博弈过程,构建三者在不同策略下的演化博弈模型,并结合系统动力学对三方策略选择的动态博弈进行仿真分析。结果表明,在联盟运作过程中:(1)各方参与者最终会达到"平台监管、物流企业努力、商家参与"的均衡状态,并且商家参与对联盟稳定运作具有重要作用。平台监管对物流企业策略选择具有直接影响,其应制定科学的惩罚力度及补偿裁定,以提升物流服务质量并保障商家权益;(2)联盟各方参与者对其相关外生变量具有较高的敏感性,但其最终策略受多个变量的共同作用,为此平台需发挥其主导作用,采取多种措施激发物流企业及商家的积极性。

Multi-party Behavior Game Research of Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Alliance Based on 4PL

The rapid rise of cross-border e-commerce broadened the development space of cross-border e-commerce logistics. As a new logistics development model generated by the practice of the enterprises, the 4PL-based cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance can effectively satisfy consumers' comprehensive demand for cross-border e-commerce logistics. However, the cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance led by the cross-border e-commerce platform is a multi-member operation organization, and each member of which conducts multiple dynamic and complex games in the business operation. The game relationship between the members is crucial to the stable operation of the alliance. Therefore, the evolutionary game theory is used to analyze the dynamic game process between cross-border e-commerce platform, logistics service provider and merchants in the alliance, and the tripartite evolutionary game model is constructed. Based on the investigation of relevant enterprises, system dynamics is used to simulate and analyze the dynamic game process of the three-party strategy selection. The results show that: (1) In the process of alliance operation, the three parts of platform supervision, logistics enterprise efforts and merchant participation will eventually reach the equilibrium. And the merchant participation plays an important role in the stable operation of the alliance. At the same time, the platform supervision has a direct impact on the strategic choice of logistics enterprises. The platform should formulate scientific penalties and compensation rulings to improve the quality of logistics services and protect the interests of merchants. (2) Participants in the alliance have high sensitivity to their relevant exogenous variables, but the final strategy is influenced by multiple variables. For this reason, the platform needs to play the leading role and take various measures to stimulate the enthusiasm of logistics enterprises and merchants. The research in this paper provides a methodological guidance for multi-party operation management based on 4PL cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance, and has enlightening significance for the improvement of the alliance operational level.