不确定需求下考虑供应商参与机制的应急资源配置鲁棒优化研究

突发事件应急资源优化配置是突发事件发生后救援工作有效开展的前提和基本保障。本文在调研国内外相关研究的基础上,以应对地震灾难为背景研究考虑供应商参与机制的应急资源保障策略,在灾前选择供应商建立政府与供应商的合作机制完成政府储备仓库的选址与资源配置,突发事件发生后依托政府储备仓库和供应商生产能力共同满足应急救援对应急资源的分时段需求,以期协调供应商与政府储备、灾前实物采购与灾后生产能力采购的比例,在保障救援效率的同时降低应急资源保障体系的成本。同时由于地震灾难发生具有需求不确定性的特点,本文引入L1范数描述需求的不确定性,建立了备灾与灾害救援两阶段决策的鲁棒优化模型,并给出了鲁棒模型对应问题的转化方法。最后通过算例仿真验证了模型和对应问题转换方法的有效性,为地震的应对提供理论指导和决策支持。

Research on Robust Optimization of Emergency Resource Allocation Based on Supplier Participation Mechanism under Uncertain Demand

With the deepening of research of emergency management, the emergency resource optimization configuration in the emergency preparation stage is the prerequisite and basic guarantee for the effective implementation of rescue work after emergency. Based on the research of domestic and foreign related research, the emergency resource security strategy considering supplier participation mechanism is proposed in facing earthquake disasters. During the pre-disaster phase, the cooperation mechanism between government and suppliers is established by selecting suppliers to achieve the selection and resource allocation of government reserve warehouses. After disasters strike, the time-phase demand for emergency resources during rescue are either dispatched from the government reserve warehouses or supplier production capacity, with a view to coordinating the ratio of suppliers to government reserves, pre-disaster physical procurement and procurement of post-disaster production capacity. Therefore, the cost of the emergency resource security system is reduced while ensuring rescue efficiency.In this paper, with earthquake disasters being characterized by the uncertainty of demand, a robust optimization model for two-stage decision-making of disaster preparedness and disaster rescue with a set of uncertainty defined by the L1 -norm is equal to a solvable formulation. The duality theory and uncertainty sets are adopted to transform the robust model into a deterministic model that can be solved by CPLEX. Finally, a case study focused on the 2010 earthquake at Yushu County in Qinghai Province of China illustrates the application of the proposed model. The advantage of the robust model is demonstrated through comparison the stochastic model and deterministic model for the same problem. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of minimum agreement amount, maximum order quantity and production capacity on total cost, which provides a good reference for actual decision makers offers managerial insights for government agencies.