大型基础设施项目融资风险动态评价体系研究

提出以“融资风险阶段划分-分担-评价”为主线的融资风险评价体系。基于“新两阶段论”把融资风险划分为缔约阶段融资风险和履约阶段融资风险；针对划分后的融资风险，构建灰色关联度和TOPSIS法相结合的分担模型；利用遗传算法优化支持向量机，在融资风险分担完成后，对融资风险展开评价；以青岛胶州湾海底隧道为例进行实证研究。研究表明:该评价体系实现了“动态性”“针对性”和“准确性”，是科学合理的，可以为大型基础设施项目中各利益攸关方及时准确地掌握各自的融资风险状况提供帮助。

Research on Dynamic Financing Risk Evaluation System of Large-scale Infrastructure Projects

This paper proposes a financing risk evaluation system following the idea that the financing risks should be divided,apportioned and evaluated. Firstly,the financing risks are divided into risks that might emerge in negotiation phase and performance phase following New Two-stage Theory. Then a risk apportionment model combing Grey Relational Degree and TOPSIS is constructed. Afterwards,a financing risk evaluation model is built by integrating Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Finally,Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Subsea Tunnel is exemplified in the empirical study,and the final results indicate that the evaluation system is reliable,which supports the individual stakeholder of large-scale infrastructure projects to grasp the risk situation in time.