粮食政策市场化改革与浙江农作物生产反应:价格、风险和定购

基于诺罗夫局部调整模型,采用1991-2002年浙江省10个地市的"时序--截面"数据,就粮食政策改革进程中浙江早稻、晚稻、大麦、小麦、棉花和油菜籽等六种农作物生产对产品价格、经营风险和粮食收购定额等因素的反应程度予以实证分析,结果表明,粮食政策改革进程中农业生产者表现出相当的经济理性,产品价格对作物生产具有明显的正面效应,生产者行为对经营风险呈现显著的厌恶性反应.不断减少粮食定购尤其是2001年取消定购已对浙江粮食生产产生了负面影响,但有助于棉花和油菜籽种植规模的扩大.此外,产品比价的变化也明显地影响作物种植关系,早稻与晚稻呈现较强的互促关系,油菜籽价格的提高将会减少大麦及小麦面积,棉花生产对稻谷价格提高呈反向变化.

Crop Production Response in Zhjiang in the Grain Policy Reform Process:Price, Risk and Quota

Based on panel data for the period of 1991-2002 obtained from the ten regions of Zhejiang Province, a modified Nerlovian partial-adjustment agricultural response model has been developed to analyze the effects of price, farming risk and grain (procurement) quota in the policy reform process of crop production including early rice, late rice, barley, wheat, cotton and rapeseed. The empirical results showed that the producers in the province are quite rational in crop production decisions. The price of produce exerts a direct influence on the production of all these six crops, while the producers have a very negative response to farming risk. The decreased quota during the policy reform, especially the cancellation of grain quota in 2001, have reduced grain production markedly, but facilitated the larger-scale production of cotton and rapeseed. Moreover, a change in the price ratios between the crops has obviously influenced the structure of crop production: an increase in early rice price leading to the expansion of late rice growing areas, an increase in rapeseed price leading to the decreasing of wheat and barley growing areas, and cotton production causing a reverse change to an increase in rice price.