我国非正规部门宏观效应动态量化分析

 本文基于2008版国民经济核算体系（SNA)新框架，在对非正规部门的统计内涵、宏观效应进行探讨的基础上，选取地区生产总值、非正规经济、非正规金融、城镇非正规就业四项指标，通过建立的状态空间模型对非正规部门宏观效应进行动态量化分析。研究结果显示，非正规部门具有“低效率、低抗风险性”特征，对宏观经济增长起促进作用，但影响程度较小；非正规金融规模弹性系数稳定在0.3-0.4之间；非正规部门就业规模的增长对宏观经济的增长起积极作用，作用的大小与国家人口流动政策调整紧密相关。

The Quantitative and Dynamic Analysis of Informal Sector's Macro-effects in China

In this article,we select four indicators of GDP,informal economy,informal finance and informal employment to make the quantitative and dynamic analysis of informal sector's macro-effect by establishing the state space model.The result suggests that:informal sector has the characteristics of low efficiency and low capability of withstanding risk,it has positive but small influence on economic growth.The elasticity coefficient of informal finance scale is between 0.3~0.4 steadily;the employment of informal s...