中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。

Research on the Relationships between Migration and Fertility in China

Using data from the 2000 population census,this paper examines the relationship between migration and fertility in China through comparing fertility of rural local residents and urban local residents with that of migrants.Both bivariate and multivariate results show that migration has significant effects on fertility: Migrants in urban areas have lower fertility than both the population in the rural origin and urban destination,and long-term migrants have lower fertility than short-term migrants.The relationship between migration and fertility in China is not fully consistent with the prediction from the fertility theories of migration.It appears that there was a transition in migrant fertility in China in the 1990s in the context of rapid socio-economic development.