中国货币政策中介目标选择的实证分析

1996年以来,我国一直采用货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标。不少学者认为货币供应量由于可控性较差而不能作为一种有效的中介目标来作用于最终目标,应该以利率、汇率、通货膨胀率等指标取而代之。为此,本文以1996年第1季度至2006年第4季度数据为基础,结合动态相关系数、VAR法、方差分解、格兰杰因果检验等现代计量方法,探究这一系列指标作为中介目标的有效性。最后本文通过实证分析得出结论,认为我国现阶段仍应以货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标。

An Analysis of the Intermediate Target Choice of China''''s Monetary Policy

Since 1996,our country has adopted money supply as the intermediate target of the monetary policy.Many scholars hold that money supply can not be acted as an effective intermediate target to influence the terminal target because it is not under well control,and should be substituted by other targets like interest rate,exchange rate,inflation rate,etc.This essay,therefore,would explore the effectiveness of these different targets,employing data from the 1st quarter of 1996 to the 4th quarter of 2006.We would utilize modern methodologies of econometrics like dynamic correlations coefficient,VAR model,variance decomposition,Granger causality analysis,etc.In the end,we reach a conclusion that currently our country should still adopt the money supply as the intermediate target of the monetary policy.