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Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities
Authors:Robert F Nau
Institution:1. The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 27708-0120, Durham, North Carolina
Abstract:This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of ldquobelief gambles,rdquo which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of ldquopreference gambles,rdquo which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).
Keywords:coherence  subjective probability  state-dependent utility  small worlds  risk neutral probabilities  noncooperative games  arbitrage  Dutch books
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