Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities |
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Authors: | Robert F. Nau |
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Affiliation: | 1. The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 27708-0120, Durham, North Carolina
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Abstract: | This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books). |
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Keywords: | coherence subjective probability state-dependent utility small worlds risk neutral probabilities noncooperative games arbitrage Dutch books |
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