中国财政政策通货膨胀效应的实证研究

 全球金融危机使各国财政赤字激增，通胀问题日益严重，通胀治理成为各国关注的焦点。与货币数量理论相比，新近发展的价格水平决定的财政理论（FTPL）对于解释通货膨胀的成因和提出通胀治理建议更有优势。本文基于FTPL视角，选取我国1982—2011年度数据，应用状态空间模型识别政策在价格决定中的作用区制，结果表明1982—1996为M区制，1997—2011为F区制；再选取1997—2011季度数据，应用SVAR法结合货币政策研究F区制下财政政策对通货膨胀的短期和长期动态效应，实证研究表明财政政策比货币政策对通胀的影响更大，而且财政政策对通货膨胀有长期效应，结合中国经济的实际情况，我们认为货币政策不是导致近年来通胀的主要成因，抑制通胀要依靠财政政策，应实行相机选择的财政政策来实现物价稳定和经济可持续发展的宏观调控目标。

An Empirical Study on the Inflation Effect of China's Fiscal Policy

The worldwide financial crisis have exploded fiscal deficit, and the inflation becomes increasingly serious，which brought inflation governance to the forefront of national policy concerns. Compared with the quantity theory of money, the latest developed theory (FTPL) have more advantages on explaining the causes of inflation and raising policy suggestions. Based on FTPL, this paper explores the annual domestic data from 1982 to 2011 and uses the state space model to identify the policy regime in determining the price level. The result indicates that the period 1982 - 1996 is M regime and the period 1997 - 2011 can be described as F regime. Then, integrated with monetary policy, this paper uses the quarterly data of 1997-2011 and SVAR model to distinguish between short-run and long-run dynamic effects of fiscal policy on inflation under F regime. The empirical research shows that fiscal policy has greater impact than monetary policy on inflation, besides, fiscal policy also has the long-term effect on inflation. Combined with the fact of Chinese economy, we believe that monetary policy is not the main determinant of inflation recently and fiscal policy plays a significant role in controlling inflation. We should adopt discretionary fiscal policy to achieve the macro-goal of price stability and sustainable economic development.