各省区季度GDP数据质量评估

  国内外学者对我国GDP数据质量的质疑重点已从年度数据转到季度数据，从全国数据转向地方数据。本文通过设计一套较为系统且可操作性强的季度GDP评估指标体系，运用空间面板数据模型对各省区的季度GDP数据质量进行了实证检验。结果表明，整体来看，中国各省区季度GDP同各经济指标的匹配性较好，数据质量较高，并不存在明显的失真现象；从时间上来看，每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估，而每年三、四季度的GDP则存在一定程度的低估，但是这种偏差在统计上不显著；分地区来看，尽管一半省区的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估，另一半省区存在一定程度的低估，但大部分省区高估或低估的程度在统计上不显著。文章进一步分析了其中的原因。

The Assessment on the Quality of Provincial Data of Quarterly GDP

The suspicion of scholars both at home and abroad on the quality of China’s GDP has transferred from annual data to quarter ones, and from the national data to the regional. This paper uses spatial panel data model to make an empirical test of the quality of provincial quarterly GDP by designing a systematic and feasible evaluation index system for quarterly data of GDP. The results show that the matching between Chinese provincial quarterly GDP and the respective economic indicators is comparatively well, the quality of data is also relatively high and there is no significant distortion on the whole; From the time point of view, the overestimation in a certain degree exists in the GDP data in the first and second quarter every year, and there is the underestimation of the third and fourth quarterly data of GDP, but the statistical deviation is insignificant; In the view of region, although the half are overestimated and the other are underestimated, most of this biased degree is not statistically notable. And furthermore, the paper analyzes their reasons.