分年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的实验研究——以甘肃省为例

人均期望寿命是分析、评价人口健康状况,衡量社会经济发展及医疗卫生服务水平的重要指标。从2014年开始人均期望寿命的提高被纳入卫生计生系统考核内容,受到各级政府的重视。为了有效地甄别和评价政策实施对人均期望寿命提高的贡献程度,需要精确地估计和判断各年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命提高的影响。在实践中,针对某一年龄组或某一特定人群死亡率的变动以及相关政策实施对人均期望寿命的影响鲜有较为精确的定量解答或快速有效的估算办法。本研究通过数据实验方法和计算机辅助计算建立一套可以较为精确地估算某一区域内某一年龄组死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的计算方法和结果集,利用这种方法可以开展不同类型、不同区域内人口死亡率变动对人均期望寿命影响的快速估算。利用估算结果可以对区域内政策实施效果进行较为科学的评估或评价。文章以中国2010年人口普查数据中甘肃省各年龄组分性别死亡率数据为基础对上述研究进行实证分析和验证。

An Experimental Study on the Effect of Mortality Change to Life Expectancy in the Age Group--A Case Study of Gansu Province

Life expectancy per capita is an important index to evaluate health status and to measure the level of medical and health services in a society. Since 2014,the improvement of life expectancy per capita has been included in the assessment of the health and family planning system,and has attracted the attention of governments at all levels. In order to effectively identify and evaluate the contribution of policy implementation to the improvement of life expectancy,it is necessary to accurately estimate and judge the impact of mortality changes in all age groups on the improvement of life expectancy. In practice,there are few accurate quantitative solutions or fast and effective estimation methods for the impact of the change of mortality rate of a certain age group or a specific population and the implementation of relevant policies on life expectancy. The main reason is that the calculation is complex and it is difficult to make more accurate answers without the help of computer programs. Through data experiment and computer-aided calculation,a set of method and result set which can be used to estimate the impact of mortality change of a certain age group on life expectancy per capita in a certain region accurately and rapidly is established in this study. By using this method,the impact of mortality change of different types and regions on life expectancy per capita can be estimated rapidly. The results can be used to evaluate the implementation effect of different interregional policies. Finally,based on the data of gender mortality of all age groups in Gansu Province in China’s 2010 census data,the above research is empirically analyzed and verified.