Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2180, United States;2. Tallahassee Orthopedic Clinic, 3334 Capital Medical Blvd. #100, Tallahassee, FL 32308, United States;1. Department of Economics, University of Toronto, 150 St George Street, Toronto, M5S3G7, ON, Canada;2. Department of Economics, The University of Texas at Austin, BRB 3.160, Mailcode C3100, Austin, TX, 78712, United States;1. Department of Economics, 206 Tilton Hall, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, United States of America;2. Economics Science Institute, One University Drive, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, United States of America;3. Department of Economics, 3136 Sproul Hall, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, United States of America;4. Department of Economics, 2906 Woodside Dr., University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221, United States of America;1. Department of Economics, University of Auckland, New Zealand;2. Thailand Development Research Institute, Thailand;1. Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia;2. MIAESR, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Individuals belonging to a social group make judgments about their relative standing within the group as well as about the relative standing of their group among other groups. On average, individuals exhibit overconfidence bias in both types of judgments in a variety of settings. We hypothesize, however, that the latter bias counteracts the former; therefore, the salience of between-group judgments should mitigate within-group overconfidence. Our second hypothesis is that within-group overconfidence is reduced in the presence of group identity. Using a 2 × 2 between-subject design, we test, and find strong support for, these hypotheses in a laboratory experiment. |
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| Keywords: | Overconfidence Group identity Judgment about one’s group Experiment |
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