农村居民消费增长比平稳更重要

 本文将消费习惯引入Lucas (1987)模型，采用农村五等份收入户的人均消费数据进行数值模拟，结果发现: 消费增长比消费平稳更重要，且收入等级越高，这种相对重要性就越突出。相对风险规避系数一定时，两类福利成本之比随习惯强度变化的轨迹呈倒U型; 习惯强度一定时，两类福利成本之比随相对风险规避系数的增大而递减。相对于其他等级的收入户，促进消费增长的经济政策为高收入户带来相对较多的福利，而平抑消费波动的经济政策能为低收入户带来较多的福利。因此，政府在促进农村居民消费增长的同时，也应重视消费波动给低收入群体造成的福利成本。

Consumption Growth is More Important than Stability in Rural China

This article uses per capita annual consumption data from China’s rural households by income quintile for the numerical simulation after incorporating habit formation into the model of Lucas (1987). The findings show that a growing consumption is more important than a smoothing consumption, and this relative importance grows with a higher income level. There is an inverse U relationship between the ratio of two kinds of welfare costs and the sensitivity of habit formation when relative risk aversion coefficient is constant, while the ratio of two kinds of welfare costs declines with the increase of relative risk aversion coefficient when the sensitivity of habit formation is constant. Furthermore, compared to other income groups, promoting consumption can bring more economic welfare for high income group, but smoothing consumption can bring more welfare for low income group. Therefore, when making policies to promote the rural consumption, government should pay attention to the welfare cost of the low income group caused by consumption fluctiuations.