中美贸易的利益分配——基于产出与消费视角的理论经验分析

中美贸易失衡及其所引发的人民币升值问题是近几年来倍受关注的热点问题.客观来看,贸易总量的失衡并不意味着贸易利益分配的失衡.通过对1978 - 2007年中美之间的贸易利益分配的分析及估计发现,中美贸易使双方均获得正的总利益.但是,中国居民从中美贸易中获得了产出利益而损失了消费利益,美国居民则刚好相反,并且在美方贸易逆差不断扩大的时期,美国居民的个人总获益要高于其顺差时期.同时,人民币对美元升值将近乎同等幅度地降低双方的贸易利益.因此,对于美国来说,无视中国经济发展的实际情况,一味要求人民币升值对中美双方都是无益,甚至有害.

Distribution of Trade Benefits between China and the USA: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of Production and Consumption

The imbalance of Sino-US trade and the consequent RMB appreciation have received a great deal of attention in recent years.Objectively,trade imbalance does not necessarily lead to imbalanced distribution of trade benefits.By a theoretical analysis and estimation of the distribution of trade benefits between China and the USA from1978 to 2007,we find that the total trade benefits of both countries are positive.However,Chinese people gain the output benefits from Sino-US trade but lose the consumption benefit...