我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的实证分析

为了协调我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的关系,对1978～2005年期间我国的人口就业与不同产业经济增长之间进行了协整分析,得出我国人口就业与第二、第三产业经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;同时构建模型对我国不同产业的GDP与就业人数进行了回归分析,利用我国不同产业的GDP就业弹性,比较分析了我国不同产业对就业吸纳作用的差异;以及利用得出的结论提出保持适度的经济增长,进行产业结构调整,扩大劳务输出等政策建议是缓解和扩大我国人口就业的必然途径。

The cointegration analysis of population employment and different industrial economic growth in China

In order to harmonize the relation between population employment and different industrial economic growth,we make the cointegration analysis of population employment and different industrial economic growth from 1978 to 2005,and come to a conclusion that the long well-balanced relation lied in population employment and different industrial economic growth;according to the GDP of different industries and the population of employment in China,building up models to make regressive analysis,and using the elasticities of employment of different industrial GDP to compare and analyze the intaking pole of different industries,meanwhile,putting forward some suggestion for resolving and enlarging the employment based on the conclusion.For example,keeping suitable economic growth,adjusting industrial structure,expanding the output of labor and so on.Which will relieve the employment problem.