人民币汇率波动对纺织品出口企业盈利能力的影响

构建固定效应面板模型,通过分析2005年至2018年上市纺织企业的财务指标和出口数据,研究人民币汇率波动对纺织品出口企业盈利能力的影响。结果表明:(1)人民币汇率与纺织品出口企业的盈利能力指标之间存在非线性相关性,升值和贬值同一幅度对盈利能力产生的冲击是不对称的;(2)人民币汇率波动对纺织品出口企业大部分财务盈利指标的冲击呈现了“微笑曲线”或倒“微笑曲线”模式;(3)当人民币汇率处于6.6-7.2区间时,升值会对纺织品出口企业总资产净利润率产生不利影响,而贬值则会对销售净现率产生不利影响。相关企业应根据汇率所处区间和变化趋势采取灵活的策略应对汇率波动的冲击。

The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Profitability of Textile Export Enterprises

A fixed-effect panel model is constructed to study the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the profitability of textile export enterprises via analyzing the financial index and export data of listed textile enterprises from 2005 to 2018.The results show that:(1)There is a non-linear correlation between RMB exchange rate and profitability index of textile export enterprises,and the impact of appreciation and depreciation on profitability is asymmetric.(2)The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on most financial profitability indicators presents a“smile curve”or an inverted“smile curve”model.(3)When the RMB exchange rate is in the range of 6.6-7.2,appreciation will have a negative impact on the net profit margin of total assets,while depreciation will have a negative impact on the net present sales rate.Relevant enterprises should adopt flexible strategies to cope with the impact of exchange rate fluctuations according to the exchange rate range and change trend.