“以支定收”还是“以收定支”:我国财政收支关系的实证研究

通过对我国财政收入与支出的时序变量建立协整与误差修正模型,实证研究我国的财政收支关系中到底是以支定收还是以收定支,确定这种收支之间的因果关系对采取财政政策的借鉴意义。研究将回答,我国财政收入是财政支出之间是单向格兰杰因还是双向格兰杰因,抑或互非因果关系,并在此基础上指出财政政策的作用方向,为真正建立符合的现代市场经济的财政观提供经验证据。

Tax-and-Spend or Spend-and-Tax: An Empirical Study on Relationship of China''s Fiscal Expenditure and Revenue

While the controversy of tax-and-spend or spend-and-tax still rests on the level of positive reasoning, this paper has put it into the empirical demonstration. With the error-correction model (ECM) established for the time serial variables in China's fiscal expenditure and revenue, this paper demonstrates whether tax-and-spend or spend-and-tax should be adopted in the relationship of China's fiscal expenditure and revenue. It is of reference significance for the fiscal policy to determine the cause-effect relationship between the expenditure and revenue. It will be found in the research whether there is a unidirectional or bi-directional Granger causality or maybe no cause-effect relationship between the fiscal expenditure and revenue. On that basis, it points out the orientation that the fiscal policy will function so that it can provide an empirical evidence to establish a fiscal viewpoint in line with modern market economy.