Low Probability Accidents |
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| Authors: | Howard Kunreuther Joanne Linnerooth |
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| Institution: | Director, Center for Risk and Decision Processes, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104.;International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. |
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| Abstract: | Experts frequently differ on their estimates of risk associated with accidents that have a low probability of occurrence. Those who stand to benefit from siting a new facility often perceive it as acceptably safe, using expert opinion to defend their argument. Potential losers find data to suggest that the new technology is too hazardous. This paper contrasts the role of risk assessments of low probability events in siting Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. In both cases the decision process was a rather lengthy one due to conflicts between interested stakeholders. The paper discusses the potential of compensation and insurance as policy tools for facilitating negotiation. Four criteria for improving the siting process in any country are also outlined. |
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| Keywords: | Low probability event compensation decision processes siting problems risk analysis |
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