中国市场化程度的判断与预测——基于加拿大弗拉瑟研究所“世界经济自由度”的视角

中国市场化程度的争论依然十分激烈，介绍评述加拿大弗拉瑟研究所“世界经济自由度”及其中国市场化程度的评价；在对各个主要评价标准进行对比分析的基础上，认为EFWindex的视角是一个比较恰当的标准。中国人均GDP之自然对数能够十分精致地拟合基于EFWIdex的中国经济自由度，回归方程为：“中国连环自由度”=1．23＋0．686Ln（人均GDP）。在回归分析的基础上，预测2030年前中国将在哪些年份赶上一些特定国家于2005年（被评价年）经济自由度。

Measurement and Prediction on the Degree of Freedom of China's Economic——Based on the View of EFW Idex Compiled by Fraser Institute of Canada

The degree of china＇s economic freedom is always widely argued. In this paper the author focuses on the introduction of ＂degree of freedom of world economy＂ of EFW Index and their assessment on China＇ s degree of market. After a comparison of various assessment critiron, the author concluded that the EFW Index can most properly measure the economic degree of freedom. The author find out that the logarithm of China＇ s GDP per capita could fit China＇s economic degree of freedom oriented from EFW Index in a fine way and based on this view the author builds a regression equation and predicts China＇ s EFW Index for the future 25 years.The regression equation is： ＂China＇ s chain linked EFW Idex＂ = 1.23 ＋ 0. 686Ln（GDP per capita）. Based on the regression analysis, the author predicts the years in which China will catch up with certain country＇ s degree of freedom of 2005.