中国宏观经济预警体系的评价与修正

摘　　要:中国宏观经济预警体系建立于20世纪90年代初，十多年来为国家宏观调控提供了可靠的信息，成为宏观调控的主要依据之一。然而，进入本世纪以来，中国经济的运行格局发生了重大变化，导致预警体系的敏感度和预测精度出现了偏差，已经到了需要修正的时候。本文在对中国宏观预警体系分析与评价的基础上，对体系的结构与指标提出了修正的思路与方案。

The Evaluation and Revision of Macro-Economic Early Warning System of China

The Chinese macroeconomic early-warning system was established in 1990s. The past decade has witnessed its functioning via providing reliable information for national regulations at a macro level. Consequently, the system becomes one of the major indicating factors in the process of macro-level regulations. However, as we move into the new millennium, the Chinese economic system has changed significantly, which leads to some degree of deviation from the system's original sensitivity and reliability. It is high time we make improvements as needed. Based on an analysis and evaluation of the macro early-warning system in Chinese context, this paper aims to put forward some guidelines and plans for the modification and correction of the system's structure and indicators.