城镇化、水资源消耗的动态演进与门槛效应

基于中国30个省市1998—2015年面板数据，综合利用核密度估计函数、非动态面板门槛回归模型系统考察城镇化与水资源消耗的动态演进过程和非线性关系。研究结果表明:（1）全国城镇化率呈两极分化态势，东部、中部、西部三大区域间城镇化受经济发展等因素影响而存在差异；全国水资源消耗得到控制，但东部、中部、西部水资源消耗高的省份存在增加趋势。（2）全国城镇化对水资源消耗影响存在显著的经济发展和居民收入门槛，并具有显著的抑制效应；东部经济发展门槛具有抑制效应，中部居民收入门槛具有促进效应；西部门槛效应与全国相同，且经济发展抑制作用阶段性增强。（3）居民收入、资本存量、人力资本与水资源消耗正相关，而经济发展与之负相关。

Dynamic Evolution of Urbanization and Water Consumption and their Threshold Effect

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2015, the dynamic evolution of urbanization and water consumption and their nonlinear relationship were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation function and non-dynamic panel threshold regression model. The findings of the research are as follows. First, the ratio of national urbanization shows polarization. Urbanization in eastern, central and western areas differs from each other because of economic development and other factors. National water consumption has been brought under control. But, water consumption of high-consumption provinces in eastern, central and western areas is still on the rise. What''s more, with the growth of economic development and residents'' income, urbanization exerts an inhibiting effect on water consumption. In eastern areas, because of economic development, urbanization has a promoting effect on water consumption. In western areas, the threshold effect is the same as that in the whole country and the inhibiting effect is rising. Last, residents'' income, capital stock and human capital are positively related to water consumption, while economic development is negatively related to it.