省域旅游经济发展水平测度

随着旅游经济在我国各地区的蓬勃发展,对其发展水平进行合理评价引起了社会各界的关注。以旅游投入、活动、产出三个方面的12个基础指标,并运用动态因子分析方法确定各指标在时间和截面维度的权重,共同构建旅游经济活动发展水平的测度模型；用该模型对我国大陆31个省、市、自治区2001~2011年旅游经济发展水平进行测度,结果表明：各省市区旅游经济发展水平差异显著,空间上呈东部沿海向西北内陆逐次降低的梯度特征；相对而言约1/3的省份发展水平持续上升,1/3省份螺旋式上升,其余省份发展水平降低；且各省份旅游经济发展水平差距还在不断扩大。

Estimating the Economic Development Level of Provincial Tourism Industries

To study the tourism economic development level, the paper selected 12 basic indicators in three aspects of economic activities, the inputs and the outputs to estimate the tourism economic development level. Based on the panel data, the Dynamic Factor method was used to determine the indicators＇ weights in time and cross-section dimensions. The tourism economic development levels of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2001-2011 were estimated, and the results showed that the provincial tourism economic development levels were significantly different and gradual declining in geological locations was obvious from the east coast to the northwest. Approximately 1/3 of the provinces＇ development level continued to rise, 1/3 provinces displayed spiral rise, and 1/3 provinces lower level of development. The gaps among the provincial tourism economic development levels are expanding.