| 基于新型核与灰度序列的MGM(1,m,N)模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊萍萍,陈诗婷,周依凡,刘煜淳,丁松.基于新型核与灰度序列的MGM(1,m,N)模型及其应用[J].中国管理科学,2022,30(7):130-139. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊萍萍 陈诗婷 周依凡 刘煜淳 丁松 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学管理工程学院，江苏 南京210044； 2.南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院，江苏 南京210044；3.浙江财经大学经济学院，浙江 杭州310018 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71701105,71901191)；国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA092)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目资助(17YJC630182)；江苏省生产力会2020年开放课题(JSSCL2020A004) |
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| 摘 要： | 雾霾是空气质量重要评判标准之一，对其进行准确预测能为相关政府部门及时做出正确决策提供理论支持，因此预测雾霾具有实际意义。本文针对区间灰数分布信息已知的序列，构建多个影响因素作用于多个系统行为变量的灰色MGM(1,m,N)模型。首先根据可能度函数计算得到区间灰数的新型核与灰度序列，然后对新型核与灰度序列分别建立MGM(1,m,N)模型以求得模拟值和预测值，最后通过还原得到区间灰数序列的上、下界。为进一步验证该模型的可行性，本文将该模型应用于雾霾相关数据并与基于传统核与灰度序列的MGM(1,m,N)模型进行比较，结果表明本文构建的新模型的模拟预测精度都较传统模型更好。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 区间灰数 核与灰度 MGM(1 m N)模型 雾霾 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-04-17 |
MGM (1, m,N) Model Based on the New Kernel and Degree of Greyness Sequences and Its Application |
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| XIONG Ping-ping,CHEN Shi-ting,ZHOU Yi-fan,LIU Yu-chun,DING Song.MGM (1, m,N) Model Based on the New Kernel and Degree of Greyness Sequences and Its Application[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2022,30(7):130-139. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Ping-ping CHEN Shi-ting ZHOU Yi-fan LIU Yu-chun DING Song |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3. School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China |
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| Abstract: | Haze is regarded as one of the important indicators of air quality evaluation. And accurate prediction and analysis of haze are considered toprovide theoretical support for relevant government departments to make correct decisions. Various kinds of suspended particles exceeding the standard in the atmosphere are collectively referred to as haze, and the influencing factors are divided into pollutant concentration and meteorological factors. This paper in which PM2.5 and PM10 are represented as suspended particles and SO2, CO, NO2 and O3are regarded as the relevant factors of pollutant concentration is mainly used to discuss the influence of pollutant concentration on suspended particles. |
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| Keywords: | grey system interval grey number kernel and degree of greyness MGM(1 m N) model haze |
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