考虑组织失效与协调的复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播模型

基于产品部件间的设计关联和组织产品间的镜像假设，构建一对一依赖的复杂产品研发项目组织-产品相依网络模型。在此基础上，构建考虑组织失效和组织间协调的复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播动力学模型，并针对由少数部件发生设计变更风险事件引发的复杂产品研发项目相依网络上的设计变更风险传播进行数值仿真。结果表明：组织失效和组织协调不足均会导致设计变更风险的积累，使得设计变更风险传播经历缓慢传播、失控传播后达到相对稳定状态；组织设计能力充足且组织间协调充分时设计变更风险传播不发生。复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播受到部件设计变更风险容量的显著影响，存在设计变更风险传播阈值η*3使得设计变更风险传播不发生；传播阈值η*3与初始变更源规模正相关；研发组织的冗余设计能力存在作用条件，使得传播阈值η*3保持在最低水平。研究成果完善了项目管理中风险动态分析框架，为提高复杂产品研发项目抵御设计变更风险的能力提供建议。

Design Change Risk Propagation for Complex Product Development Projects Considering Organizational Failure and Cooperation

Influenced by internal and external risk factors such as customer demand uncertainty, technological change, scheme error, a small number of components are prone to design change risk events. In the context of complex inter-component dependency and concurrent development, the design change of one or a few components may trigger the potential design change risk of other dependent components, resulting in design change risk propagation. The propagation of design change risk brings great uncertainty to complex product development (CPD), which may lead to serious project delay, budget overrun, and low quality. Complex products contain a large number of components, which cannot be independently developed by a single organization. Therefore, CPD projects mainly adopt the form of multi-organizational collaboration network. Although networked form has the advantages of reducing the cost of development and realizing complementary resources, it further increases the complexity of design change risk management in the face of design change propagation, which poses a great challenge to the CPD projects. Therefore, it is of great significance to consider the role of organizations and reveal the propagation law of design change risk under the influences of organizations.