公开或隐藏未来市场价格对新品预售的影响研究

预售是新产品上市前，商家允许消费者提前预定产品的一种销售手段。本文以新产品预售为背景，建立了商家同时销售新旧两代产品时的预售模型，先对消费者最优购买策略进行了分析，在此基础上，分两种情况，即商家在预售阶段公开或隐藏新品未来市场价格，研究了商家最优预售价格折扣和最优订购量。最后，通过数值仿真分析了影响新品预售策略和商家收益的一些因素。结果表明，商家在预售阶段公开新品未来市场价格可以获得更高期望收益。

The Impact of Undisclosed Sale Price on Presale Strategies when New Products Launch

Presale is a sellingmechanism where manufactures allow consumers to book their products in advance before the new products launch to market. With the development of Internet and technology, advance selling is widely used in the launch of many new products, i.e. smart phones, music, video, games and services. However, presale mechanisms are applied in different way. Two different presale scenarios are considered in this paper.-where the future sales price of new products is disclosed and undisclosed in the presale period—and examines in which one the manufacturers can gain more profits. It establishes a two-period game model of advance selling for new products and fixed-price for the original products simultaneously. It discusses the optimal purchase strategies of consumers and shows that some consumers who don’t buy new products because of high price would like to pre-order products for the price discount. Based on the consumers’ purchases strategies, it discusses the manufactures’ profits and presale strategies under the two presale scenarios: when the future sale price of new products after advance selling is disclosed and undisclosed. Finally, it considers the effects of some factors on the manufacturers’profits and presale strategies by numerical analysis. It concludes that the manufacturers can gain more expected profits when the future sale price of new products in the presale period is disclosed.