Indicators and models of changes in the American occupational system, 1947–73

This paper extends earlier conceptual and empirical work by Bell, Lebergott, and Moore on changes in the American occupational system in the post-World War II period. After updating and extending several time series of occupational indicators used by these authors and adding some others as well, the authors specify and estimate a number of dynamic structural-equation models to explain changes in the occupational system as indexed by the social indicators. These equations indicate: (1) that Bell's thesis about a shift from a production of goods orientation to a performance of services orientation in post-war American society needs to be qualified; (2) that the shift is due more to increased productivity in argriculture rather than in industry; (3) that increased bureaucratization of employment results, in part, from the shift out of agriculture and other post-war trends in the technological and organizational context of the work environment; and (4) that societal investments in military technology and in scientific research and development have had an important impact upon the occupational system in terms of shifting upwards the distribution of occupations with respect to prestige. In each of the topics analyzed, the authors make suggestions for developing additional indicators and for refining the structural equations. In addition, the potential of these equations for social forecasting is considered.