基于预期理论的我国房地产业宏观调控研究

总体上看,2003年以来中央政府房地产市场宏观调控政策的效果难尽人意。其原因错综复杂,但房地产市场主体的预期行为的负面影响也是致因之一。市场主体的预期是一把双刃剑,科学合理的预期有助于宏观政策效果的发挥;反之,不合理、不稳定的预期将在一定程度上冲抵宏观调控政策效果。同时,政府宏观调控政策和政府本身的可信性和可行性又将影响市场主体的预期行为。因此,要想有效调控我国的房地产业、提高政策实施效果,务必要对房地产市场主体预期行为进行科学有效的引导和管理,以稳定市场预期,并提高调控政策本身的科学性。

Research on Macro-control on Realty Industry Based on Rational Expectation Theory

On the whole,the effect of the central government’s macroeconomic regulation and control policy on real estate market has not lived up to expectations since 2003.The reasons are complicated,of which that the negative effect of real estate market subject’s expectations is also important.The market subject’s expectation is a double-edged sword,scientific and reasonable expectation helps give full play to macro-policy’s effect;Conversely,unreasonable,unstable expectation will set off the macro-control policy’s effect to a certain extent.Meanwhile,the government’s macro-control policies and the credibility of the government itself and feasibility will affect market subject’s expectations.So,in order to control the real estate industry effectively,and to increase policy implementation effect,it should be sure to guide and manage the expectations of real estate market subject,to stabilize the market expectations and improve the scientificity of the control policy itself.