户籍制度改革中的人口迁移福利磁力问题研究

根据福利磁力理论,对我国户籍制度改革中的人口迁移福利磁力问题进行了系统分析,建立福利磁力效应的财政压力估算公式,并以广东省为例,就户籍制度改革中的福利磁力效应的潜在财政压力展开社会救助制度层面的实证分析。分析结果表明:户籍制度改革在不去除目前的社会救助制度区域分隔机制的情况下,将可能产生大规模福利移民问题,使发达地区财政负担迅速加重,显著增加国家总体财政开支。借鉴国外福利去磁力化政策实践,设置社会救助制度的资格申请等待期和福利递进机制是比较可取的应对策略。

On Welfare Magnet with Migration in China’s Reform of Huji System

Based on the welfare magnet theory,the paper systematically analyzes the welfare magnet problems in migration during China’s reform of Huji system(household registration system).By laying down an estimate calculation and using the data from Guangdong Province as a case,it makes an empirical analysis of the potential fiscal pressure.The result shows that under the existing social assistance system,Huji system reform is likely to bring about a very heavy fiscal burden and increase the national fiscal spending.According to oversea experience,it is more reasonable to set up a waiting period for the applicants to enter the system coverage and to establish a progressive mechanism for welfare benefits.