政府管理作用对养老金投资收益的影响关系研究

采用聚类的方法和Binary Logistic回归模型,对世界上35个国家的养老金投资收益与政府管理作用的关系进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,政府管理作用与养老基金投资收益具有正向相关关系,即政府管理作用越强,其养老金实际投资回报率越高;对一个国家而言,政府管理作用的逐渐增强能够在三个阶段不同程度地直接或间接促进其养老金投资回报率的提高。本文的研究结论对我国农保基金的运作和管理有重要的启示:农保基金制度建设除了要注意基金运营制度和投资管理制度等内在因素的改革和完善外,还要特别注意加强政府的管理作用,尤其是要提高地方政府的管理能力,这样才能保证我国农保基金的运营在安全性的前提下取得较高的投资收益。

Research on the Relationship Between Pension Fund's Returns and Government's Function

By using Cluster Analysis and Binary Logistic model to process data of 35 countries in the world,positive research is made on the relationship between pension fund's average actual returns and government's function.The results show that in the three phases of government's reformation,better government's function results in higher returns in different degrees.In the process of building rural social pension insurance system in China,attention should be paid not only to the way of fund's operation and investment,but also to the government's reformation,especially to the improvement of local government's management,for higher and safer returns.